The phenomena of the “wisdom-of-crowds” is known to work shockingly well in assessing physical characteristics – but an important epistemological question arises:
“Is this phenomenon simply just a volumetric calculation, common to human brains, that just works better when averaged?
– or –
Is it possible that there is some kind of Jungian “Collective Unconscious” mechanism at play?
Or, as my wife wisely notes:
“Dear friends, please come in; try it, and have fun with the “wisdom-of-crowds” game! It’s kind of like opening Asian Fortune cookies - but much more fun! And you get to choose your own numbers, while increasing the probability of getting a better chance to win a lottery…!
Background
In the mid 1800’s Sir Francis Galton [ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_Galton ] conducted a series of experiments where crowds at fairs were asked to guess the weight of livestock, and in later experiments, the number of objects in transparent containers. Remarkably, when he averaged all the responses, the average was quite close to the actual values, often within fractions of a percent!
[
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds]
Over the years, many others have repeated and verified these experiments, and in 2004 James Surowiecki wrote a book called:
“The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations”,
which is about the aggregation of information in groups, resulting in coherent decisions. And in it, he argues that these “averaged” guesses are often better than could have been made by any single member of the group! Obviously, this is quite controversial!
Then, in September 2009, Illusionist Derren Brown claimed to use the 'Wisdom of Crowds' concept to explain how he correctly predicted the UK National Lottery results. Of course, this was even more controversial!
[
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derren_Brown:_The_Events]
“Collective Unconscious” by Carl Jung was a term introduced by psychiatrist Carl Jung to represent a form of the unconscious (that part of the mind containing memories and impulses of which the individual is not aware) common to mankind as a whole and originating in the inherited structure of the brain.
[
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collective_unconscious]
This website is tiny, short, inexpensive experiment using the agility, ease, and speed of the “Cloud” [AWS] to explore this question with real data, as it might apply to predictive events.
Thanks for experimenting with us! Please respect its’ intent…!
And if you like it, please pass it on to others.
We probably need over 1000 regular users to reach the threshold where the
“Wisdom-of-Crowds” phenomena can fully “kick in”!